Falsifiable

2018 Predictions

Inspired by Slate Star Codex, this is my second year of making predictions (see also: my previous predictions, their scores, and my recent LessWrong post about these predictions).

Before I jump into the predictions, I want to mention that I’ve created templates so that anyone who wants to can also take a stab at it; the templates focus on international events and come in two versions:

  • Long (which assumes you read global news a lot)
  • Short (which is less demanding)

With both these sheets, the idea is to pick a limited number of probabilities (I recommend 51%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%) and assign one to each item that you have an opinion on. At the end of the year, you count the number of correct items in each probability bin and use that to see how close you were to ideal. This gives you an answer to the important question: “when I say something is 80% likely to happen, how likely, really, is it to happen?”

You can also make your own (or use the set of questions Slate Star Codex normally uses). If you do make your own, please link your post (and maybe also your template?) in the comments or post it to the front page. It’s my hope that this post can serve as a convenient place for the LW community to look at the predictions of everyone who wants to participate in this experiment!

With that out of the way, here’s my guesses for the next year.

Canada

  1. Liberals remain ahead in the CBC Poll Tracker seat projection – 70%
  2. Trudeau has a higher net favorability rating than Andrew Scheer according to the CBC Leader Meter on January 1, 2019 – 80%
  3. Marijuana is legalized in time for Canada Day – 60%
  4. Marijuana is legalized in 2018 – 90%
  5. At least one court finds the assisted dying bill isn’t in line with Carter v Canada – 70%
  6. Ontario PC party wins the election – 60%
  7. The Ontario election results in a minority government – 80%
  8. The Quebec election results in a minority government – 80%
  9. No BC snap election in 2018 – 90%
  10. No terrorist attack in Canada that kills > 10 Canadians in 2018 – 90%
  11. More Canadian opioid poisoning deaths in 2018 than in 2017 – 60%
  12. Canada does better at the 2018 Winter Olympics (in both gold medals and total medals) than in 2014 – 90%
  13. Canada does not win a gold medal in men’s hockey at the 2018 Olympics – 70%
  14. Canada does win a gold medal in women’s hockey at the 2018 Olympics – 51%

America

  1. Trump announces that the US is pulling out of NAFTA and begins the process of putting the US withdrawal into motion – 51%
  2.  Less than 100km of concrete wall on the border with Mexico will be constructed – 90%
  3. No registry of Muslims created – 90%
  4. Congress doesn’t take action to extend DACA – 80%
  5. No department of the Federal Government is eliminated – 90%
  6. There isn’t a government shutdown before the midterm elections – 60%
  7. Democrats take back the house in the 2018 midterm elections – 80%
  8. Democrats take back the senate in the 2018 midterm elections – 60%
  9. Mueller’s investigation finishes in 2018 – 60%
  10. Impeachment proceedings aimed at Trump are not started in 2018 – 80%
  11. Trump is still president at the end of 2018 – 90%
  12. No terrorist attack in America that kills > 10 Americans – 70%
  13. No terrorist attack in America that kills > 100 Americans – 90%
  14. Susan Collins doesn’t get the Obamacare stabilization measures she was promised – 70%
  15. More US opioid poisoning deaths in 2018 than in 2017 – 80%

South America

  1. FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 – 80%
  2. The black market exchange rate for Venezuelan Bolivars is above 110,000 to the US dollar on January 1, 2019 (as measured by DolarToday) – 80%
  3. Inflation in Venezuela is above 100% for the year of 2018 (as measured by DolarToday) – 90%
  4. United Socialist party retains control of the Venezuelan presidency in 2018 – 90%
  5. Protests (and the official response to those protests) result in more than 100 fatalities in Venezuela in 2018 – 60%
  6. Protests (and the official response to those protests) do not result in more than 1000 fatalities in Venezuela in 2018 – 70%
  7. Major Venezuelan opposition groups do not enter any sort of power sharing agreement with the Venezuelan regime in 2018 – 80%

Middle East

  1. No Israeli politician is indicted by the ICC over settlement activity in 2018 – 90%
  2. There isn’t an election in Israel in 2018 – 80%
  3. US does not physically relocate its embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 – 90%
  4. No Palestinian led Intifada in Israel that results in the deaths of >1000 combined attackers, security forces, and civilians (this is a conflict characterized by suicide bombing and police responses) – 70%
  5. No Israeli led operation in the West Bank or Gaza that results in the deaths of >1000 combined soldiers, civilians, and militants (this is a conflict characterized by rocket fire and military strikes) – 70%
  6. Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn’t control Gaza by January 1, 2019) – 51%
  7. No significant resurgence in ISIL in 2018 (e.g. it does not gain territory over the next year) – 80%
  8. Fewer casualties in the Syrian Civil War in 2018 than in 2017 – 70%
  9. No power sharing agreement or durable ceasefire (typified by the three months following the agreement each having less than 500 fatalities) in Syria in 2018 – 80%
  10. Bashar Al Assad is still President of Syria on January 1, 2019 – 90%
  11. Protests in Iran do not result in more than 1000 fatalities by the end of 2018 – 70%
  12. Protests in Iran do not result in more than 100 fatalities by the end of 2018 – 51%
  13. Hassan Rouhani is still President of Iran on January 1, 2019 – 90%
  14. No new international sanctions against Iran (does not include adding new organizations or individuals to old categories and requires coordinated participation of at least two countries) – 80%
  15. No new US sanctions against Iran (does not include adding new organizations or individuals to old categories) – 51%
  16. No attack on the Iranian nuclear program by Israel – 90%
  17. Iran does not withdraw from the deal limiting its nuclear program – 90%
  18. Conditional on Iran remaining in the nuclear deal, inspectors find no evidence of violations after the deal began – 90%
  19. Yemen Civil War continues – 60%
  20. Saudi Arabia pulls troops out of Yemen – 51%
  21. Mohammed bin Salman either remains as crown prince of Saudi Arabia, or becomes king (i.e. no coup or succession shake-up) – 80%
  22. Rockets fired from Yemen cause casualties in another country – 51%
  23. No resolution or lifting of embargo in the Qatar crisis – 80%
  24. OPEC production cuts continue through to the end of 2018 – 60%

Africa

  1. No power sharing between ZANU-PF and the opposition will happen in Zimbabwe before the elections (if they occur) in 2018 – 80%
  2. Zimbabwe will hold election in 2018 – 70%
  3. No peace deal ends South Sudan fighting – 70%
  4. Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 – 70%
  5. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Egypt that kills >100 people in a one week period – 80%
  6. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Tunisian kills >50 people in a one week period – 90%
  7. No terrorist attack in Tunisia kills >20 people – 80%
  8. Zuma is not impeached in 2018 – 51%

Asia

  1.  Inflation rate in Japan still remains below 1% in 2018 – 70%
  2. Japanese constitutional reform (removing pacifism) does not occur in 2018 – 51%
  3. China will not deploy its military against Taiwan or Hong Kong in 2018 – 90%
  4. North Korea will test a submarine launched ballistic missile in 2018 – 70%
  5. North Korea will not test nuclear weapons or launch any missiles during the 2018 Olympics – 80%
  6. North Korea will test a nuclear weapon in 2018 – 51%
  7. No country will attempt to shoot down a North Korean missile test in 2018 – 80%
  8. If there is an attempt, it will succeed – 51%
  9. North Korea tests a missile that is judged by experts at 38 North as likely able to carry a plausible North Korean nuclear weapon to the United States – 60%
  10. No current member of China’s Politburo Standing Committee visits North Korea in 2018 – 70%
  11. No meeting between Kim Jung-un and Moon Jae-in in 2018 – 90%

Europe

  1. No resolution to the crisis in Ukraine – 80%
  2. Russian GDP growth is less than 3% – 80%
  3. No gain of greater than 20% in the value of the ruble vs. the dollar – 70%
  4. Sanctions against Russia are not significantly rolled back (e.g. sanctions remain in place against Rosneft, Novate, Gazprombank and Vnesheconombank by all members of the G7 remain in place at the end of 2018) – 90%
  5. Angela Merkel remains chancellor of Germany – 60%
  6. Germany holds another election before a government can be formed – 51%
  7. No date set for another Scottish referendum in 2018 – 80%
  8. Teresa May remains prime minister of the United Kingdom – 70%
  9. The UK does not terminate the process of Brexit in 2018 – 90%
  10. There is no final Brexit withdrawal deal reached in 2019 (Donald Tusk wishes to have one by October) – 51%
  11. No snap election/vote of no-confidence in the UK in 2018 – 80%
  12. Poland’s EU voting rights aren’t suspended – 90%
  13. Poland and Hungary continue to refuse to accept migrant quotas – 90%
Falsifiable

Grading my 2017 Predictions

Now is the big reveal. Just how did I do in 2017?

Canada

  1. Trudeau ends the year with a lower approval rating than he started – 60%
  2. No bill introduced that changes the electoral system away from first past the post in 2019 – 50%
  3. No referendum scheduled on changing the electoral system away from first past the post before 2019 – 70%
  4. A bill legalizing marijuana is passed by the House of Commons – 90%
  5. The senate doesn’t block attempts to legalize marijuana – 80%
  6. At least one court finds the assisted dying bill isn’t in line with Carter v Canada – 60%
  7. Ontario Liberal Approval rating remains below 30% – 80%
  8. Patrick Brown “unsure” rating remains above 40% – 70%
  9. Kellie Leitch is not the next CPC leader – 80%
  10. Michael Chong is not the next CPC leader – 70%
  11. Maxine Bernier is not the next CPC leader – 90%
  12. No terrorist attack that kills >10 Canadians – 70%
  13. No terrorist attack that kills >100 Canadians – 90%
  14. At least one large technology company (valuation >$10 billion and >1,000 employees) will open a Waterloo office in 2017 – 80%

 

America

  1. Trump will veto at least 1 bill passed by the House and Senate – 70%
  2. Changes to NAFTA will not significantly affect Canada (e.g. introduce tariffs, eliminate visas, etc) – 80%
  3. Less than 100km of concrete wall on the border with Mexico will be constructed – 80%
  4. Unemployment rate changes by less than 0.5% in 2017 – 90%
  5. Bay Area housing prices increase in 2017 – 90%
  6. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 80%
  7. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 5 million people – 50%
  8. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw less than 10 million people – 70%
  9. Protests outside of America on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 60%
  10. Terrorist attack in America that kills at least 10 Americans – 70%
  11. No terrorist attack in America that kills at least 100 Americans – 70%
  12. No registry of Muslims created in America – 90%
  13. New Supreme Court Justice is named to the USSC – 90%
  14. No repeal of any of: the individual mandate, the prohibition on denying coverage for pre-existing conditions, children remaining on their parents insurance plans until they are 25 – 70%
  15. gov is taken offline or otherwise rendered inoperative by the new administration – 80%
  16. No Federal Department is eliminated – 80%

South America

  1. No setback to the FARC peace deal significant enough to cause >1000 rebels to rearm – 70%
  2. On the black market, the exchange rate for Venezuelan Bolivars to US Dollars remains above 3000 bolivars per dollar. (As measured by DolarToday) – 80%
  3. Inflation in Venezuela for 2017 is higher than 100% (As measured by DolarToday) – 90%
  4. United Socialist party retains control of the Venezuelan presidency – 70%
  5. No uprising in Venezuela leading to >1000 combined civilian and soldier deaths – 70%

Middle East

  1. The “Regulation” Bill, legalizing many illegal settlements, is passed in Israel – 60%
  2. No Israeli politician is indicted by the ICC over settlement activity in 2017 – 80%
  3. The US moves its embassy to Jerusalem – 50%
  4. OPEC agreement fails (as evidenced by Saudi Arabia increasing oil production to >10.058 million BPD) – 50%
  5. Iraq takes back Mosul – 90%
  6. Mosul Dam does not fail – 70%
  7. Fewer casualties in Syrian Civil War in 2017 than in 2016 – 60%
  8. No new international sanctions against Iran – 80%
  9. No new US sanctions against Iran – 50%
  10. No attack on the Iranian nuclear program by Israel – 80%
  11. Iran does not withdraw from the deal limiting its nuclear program – 80%
  12. Conditional on Iran remaining in the nuclear deal, inspectors find no evidence of violations after the deal began – 90%
  13. Yemen Civil War continues – 60%

Africa

  1. Power transition in The Gambia requires ECOWAS troops – 50%
  2. Power transition occurs in The Gambia – 70%
  3. No peace deal ends South Sudan fighting – 50%
  4. IS or affiliated groups do not hold more territory in Africa at the end of 2017 than at the beginning – 90%
  5. Libya has a single government by the end of 2017 – 50%
  6. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Egypt that kills >100 people in a one week period – 80%
  7. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Tunisian kills >50 people in a one week period – 90%
  8. At least one terrorist attack kills >50 people in Tunisian – 50%

Asia

  1. Inflation rate in Japan remains below 1% in 2017 – 70%
  2. No Japanese snap election in 2017 – 90%
  3. Scandal involving Thailand’s new king makes its way to a major Western Newspaper – 50%
  4. Saenuri Party loses in the 2017 South Korean election – 80%
  5. China will send at least one diplomatic “insult” to the US (e.g. expelling an ambassador or consul or closing on of its embassies or consulates) – 60%
  6. By the end of 2017, none of the young lawmakers associated with the Umbrella Revolution will be in the Hong Kong parliament – 60%
  7. The Hong Kong lawmakers who are appealing their ban from parliament will have their final appeals denied – 80%
  8. China will not deploy its military against either Hong Kong or Taiwan in 2017 – 90%
  9. North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon – 70%
  10. North Korea does not demonstrate a completed weapon system (e.g. miniaturized bomb and ICBM capable of threatening the continental United States) – 90%

Europe

  1. No resolution to the crisis in Ukraine – 70%
  2. Crimea remains part of Russia – 90%
  3. Russian GDP growth is less than 2% – 80%
  4. No gain of greater than 15% in the value of the ruble vs the dollar – 60%
  5. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor of Germany – 60%
  6. Marie Le Pen does not become President of France – 70%
  7. Geert Wilders does not become Prime Minister of the Netherlands – 70%
  8. UK invokes Article 50 – 60%
  9. Conditional on the UK invoking article 50, this occurs behind schedule – 70%
  10. Conditional on the UK leaving the EU, Scotland prepares for another referendum – 80%
  11. No snap election called in the UK – 80%
  12. No regional independence movement (e.g. Scotland, Catalan) achieves success in Europe in 2017 – 90%
  13. Sanctions against Russia are not significantly rolled back (e.g. sanctions remain in place against Rosneft, Novate, Gazprombank and Vnesheconombank by all members of the G7 remain in place at the end of 2017) – 60%

Personal

  1. I will not break up with anyone I am currently dating – 90%
  2. I will buy a car – 50%
  3. I will still be working at my current job at the end of 2017 – 80%
  4. I will not move to another city in 2017 – 90%
  5. Conditional on remaining in my current city, I will not move to a different apartment in 2017 – 80%
  6. I will read at least 40 books this year – 80%
  7. I will read at least 10 non-fiction books this year – 50%
  8. I will start reading (and read at least 50 pages) of at least 10 books people recommended to me this year – 60%
  9. I will write at least 200,000 words this year – 80%
  10. I will post at least 15 blog posts or short stories – 80%
  11. I will post at least 25 blog posts or short stories – 50%
  12. I will be >15% over or under-confident for at least 2 confidence levels in these predictions (before taking into account this prediction) – 80%

Notes

I thought that making my predictions mostly numerical would make them easy to grade. This mostly worked, but there were a few edge cases, judgement calls, and other amusing things that I want to explicitly mention:

  • Throughout my predictions I used the word “remains”. I regret this, because it is ambiguous. I think I intended it to mean “on January 1st, 2018, X remains true”, but there’s an alternative parsing that is “during all of 2017, X will be true”. I feel it’s most accurate to grade these according to my intent. For my 2018 predictions, I will use clearly language.
  • For 8, the two most recent polls I could find were both from November. In one, Patrick Brown had a “don’t know” rating of 50%. In the other, it was 34%. Polls were found by Googling ‘ontario leader popularity’ and ‘ontario leader popularity politics’; November was the last month in which I could find polls, so I only used November polls. I’m averaging these two and considering the prediction successful. The lack of good aggregation of Ontario political information is part of why I would like to create a website tracking the Ontario election this year.
  • While I was correct as to the who wasn’t the next leader of the Conservative party, I definitely got emotionally involved such that I was severely miscalibrated. Bernier came far closer to winning it then Leitch or Chong and both of those two fringe candidates had much lower chances that it felt like they did.
  • WRT 24 and 25, I’m not counting the Las Vegas shooting as a terrorist attack because it lacked a political motive (as far as we currently know). I think I overestimated the risk of terrorist attack because of the availability heuristic (the last two years had seen a higher than normal amount of successful and dangerous terrorist attacks). A proper estimation would have focused more on the base rate.
  • I don’t think Trump’s cancellation of advertising comes anywhere close to fulfilling 29, so I’m marking it as failed.
  • 31 is borderline, with many former FARC fighters “joining criminal gangs or a dissident FARC movement that has about 1,000 fighters nationwide“. Given that this still implies less than 1000 members rearmed to continue the fight as FARC, I think the prediction holds.
  • 38 is also borderline, but ultimately, I think there is a difference between an announcement of intent to move and an actual movement. Since I was going to mark 28 as a success if Trump hadn’t signed the tax bill by now, it’s only fair that I mark 38 as a failure.
  • I was way under-confident in the stability of the Mosul dam (41). Compare my probability with the chance on the Good Judgement Project and you’ll see I really overstated the risk compared to the consensus.
  • WRT to 43 and 44, the US Treasury added new groups to existing designations, but these are neither new sanctions, nor international sanctions
  • For 59, I think this Daily Mail headline counts: “Thailand’s colourful new King brought ‘his mistress AND his former air stewardess wife’ to his father’s lavish cremation ceremony with both marching in bearskin hats“. I think I want to stay away from prediction “scandals” in the future though, because it’s a very fuzzy concept.
  • While North Korea claims to have a complete, miniaturized ICBM, it looks like them actually realizing this with a weapon able to hit the US mainland is about one year away. Therefore 66 is a success.
  • 69 is only provisionally true and needs to be revised when more GDP data is available.
  • I am apparently rubbish at predicting snap elections, given that I got both 77 and 58 wrong, while being highly confident in my wrongness.
  • Out of all of my failed predictions, the one that surprised me the most was the OPEC deal holding. I really thought that it would fall apart.

A complete list of the sources I used when grading all non-personal predictions is available here.

Calibration

The whole point of having predictions with few allowed probabilities (for me it was 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90%) is that you can then check how accurate these were by pooling your answers. Here’s how I did:

Of my predictions at a 50% confidence level, I got 7 right and 6 wrong (54%).
Of my predictions at a 60% confidence level, I got 9 right and 4 wrong (69%).
Of my predictions at a 70% confidence level, I got 16 right and 4 wrong (80%).
Of my predictions at an 80% confidence level, I got 20 right and 6 wrong (77%).
Of my predictions at a 90% confidence level, I got 17 right and 2 wrong (89%).

If you prefer graphs, here’s the results on a graph. The red line shows what I would get if I was a perfect judge of probability. The blue line is actual me. Whenever the red line is below my results, I was under-confident. Whenever it’s above them, I was overconfident.

I’m pleased that in general (excepting 70% vs. 80%), things I thought were more likely were in fact more likely. I appear to be fairly under-confident at lower probability levels (50% through 70%), and fairly good at higher confidence levels (80% and 90%), although of course this is just one year and some of this could be due to chance and luck.

My meta-calibration was quite poor. I was never more than 10% off from perfect calibration, despite my worries that I would frequently be up to 15% from it.

All About Me, Politics

Political Views for May 2017

Like many others who are a bit, um, obsessive when it comes to politics, I’ve long been a fan of the Political Compass. Most people are familiar with the differences between left wing redistributive and right wing capitalist politics. The observation underlying the Political Compass is that these aren’t the only salient axes of political disagreement.

In addition to the standard left-right economic disagreement, the Political Compass looks at the disagreements between libertarians and authoritarians. This second axis deals with the amount of social restrictions (or, from the other point of view, mandated social cohesiveness) a government imposes on its citizens.

The Political Compass breaks political parties (and the political views of individuals) into four quadrants: the authoritarian left (think centralized communism, e.g. Mao, Stalin), the authoritarian right (think socially conservative capitalism, e.g. Reagan, Thatcher), the libertarian right (think socially permissive capitalism e.g. Macron, Gary Johnson), and the libertarian left (socially permissive welfare states or regional collectivism, e.g. Corbyn, Stein).

It is common to see authoritarian policies coupled with deregulated capitalism and socially liberal policies coupled with more redistributive economic systems, a trend which causes many people to associate the economic left with libertarian social attitudes and the economic right with authoritarian social attitudes. One of the goals of the Political Compass is to allow people to disentangle these common correlations.

The categorization provided by the Political Compass is perhaps most useful when discussing less common political views, like nationalism and (economic) libertarianism. Many nationalists are actually very economically centrist – the nationalist and racist British National Party is economically to the left of the UK Labour Party. This makes it inappropriate to simply label these groups as “far-right”. They aren’t far right in the economic sense. They are instead very authoritarian, a characteristic most people associate with the economic right.

Libertarians are also occasionally referred to as extremely right. In this case, it is correct to make a comparison with other economically right parties, but important to remember that libertarians lack the social conservativism that defines most right-wing parties. The Libertarian Party in the United States might agree with the GOP on economics, but they’re more likely even than Democrats to oppose the militarization of police forces, the expansion of national security powers, or the war on drugs.

I’ve been a fan of the Political Compass for a long time. Recently I wondered how my political views (as measured by a political compass score) have changed over the past few years. Unfortunately, I don’t have any good records of where exactly the political compass put me in the past. All of I have to go on are my somewhat fuzzy memories, which I think put me on the extreme left-libertarian side of things (I believe the score was approximately -7/-7, far into the left-libertarian quadrant).

One of my great joys this past year has been reading year-old journal entries; this is the first time I’ve kept a regular journal, so having a written record of what exactly I did a year ago is still novel to me. Because of my journal, I’ve gained a lot of insight into how the past year has (and hasn’t) changed me. When I retook the Political Compass test recently, I was sad that I didn’t know for sure how I’d done in the past. With this in mind, I’ve decided to publish my results (and just as importantly, why I think I got them) yearly.

 

The Results

 

I scored -3.25 on the economic axis (this puts me firmly left of centre) and -6.56 on the authority axis (putting me deep in the social libertarian camp). Here’s how I stack up against the Canadian political parties (as assessed in 2015 by the Political Compass).

These results put me to the left of all Canadian political parties economically and very, very far from all of the Canadian political parties on civil liberties. The new score is in the same quadrant as my previous score, but is somewhat less extreme (especially economically).

Much more interesting (to my imagined version of a future me at least) than the fact of my score is the political reasoning that caused me to receive it.

Economics

I’m not surprised that the Political Compass put me more or less in the centre-left, because centre-left policies feel very much like part of my identity. Drawing on Joseph Heath’s definition, I would say that the centre-left is united by a belief that the government should primarily focus its economic interventions on solving collective action problems and fixing market failures and that the government should do this in a redistributive manner.

Adjacent to the centre-left on one side is the centre-right, which agrees with the centre-left on the purpose of government, but doesn’t advocate for redistributive solutions. One of the best examples of how this difference actually plays out is in healthcare.

The centre-left solution to the well-known market failures of health insurance is to mandate a national insurance scheme with non-actuarial premiums (premiums based on income, rather than on risk of requiring health care). The centre-right uses something like Obamacare’s individual mandate, which requires everyone to hold health insurance or pay an extra tax. In both cases market failure is corrected through government policy and the average consumer is better off. The main difference is in who picks up most of the price tag.

In general, it’s my utilitarian ethics that make me favour the centre-left over the centre-right, not a belief that one approach (or the other) leads to better economic outcomes. The utilitarian argument for progressive taxation is simple. Money has decreasing marginal utility – the more you have of it, the less each individual dollar matters to you. When dealing with essential services, I think it is most ethical to pay for them in the way that causes the least dissatisfaction, which in practice means progressive taxation.

The centre-left isn’t entirely opposed to regressive taxation though. I support regressive taxation if that’s what it takes to price an externality (e.g. carbon taxes are regressive, but another cost structure wouldn’t correctly price the externality) or if the tax leads to better outcomes (e.g. cigarette taxes are regressive, but reduce the incidence of smoking).

My disagreements with the hard-left are rarely about morality. In general, I am liable to agree with your average communist, anarcho-communist, anarcho-syndicalist, socialist, etc. about the moral necessity of reducing poverty. I disagree with the hard-left merely about what is practical or expedient. I oppose setting prices (whether it’s for rent, pharmaceuticals, or fossil fuels) because the “cure” of setting prices is so often worse than the disease the price-setting is supposed to fix. I do genuinely believe that a rising tide can lift all boats and worry that hard-left policies would sabotage the engine of growth that has lifted over billion people out of absolute poverty in the past few decades.

The main role I see for the government is offering insurance. There are a variety of insurance products that suffer from adverse selection – the tendency for only the highest risk individuals or companies to purchase insurance against for certain risks. We see adverse selection in deposit insurance [1], health insurance, unemployment insurance, welfare (which is basically poverty insurance), and pensions (which are best modelled as insurance against outliving your savings). In these areas, the government can easily address a market failure by mandating that everyone must buy insurance against the risk. This lowers prices the average price considerably, making it feasable for the average person to protect against rare events in a way that isn’t possible in a market with adverse selection.

I also believe that the government should be involved in correcting for negative externalities. Without some central body forcing market participants to pay for negative externalities, we see them become distressingly common. If companies and individuals had always had to pay for the carbon they dumped into the atmosphere, we would expect global warming to be far less advanced by now. Where the externality doesn’t compete too strongly with human health and flourishing (e.g. small amounts of pollution, carbon dioxide, etc.), I think it makes sense to price it rather than ban it completely.

I absolutely loath systems like cap and trade, where a negative externality is dealt with through a complicated bureaucratic process that incentivizes people to game the system wherever possible. Just one concrete example of how this sort of thing can go wrong: a lot of the carbon credits in the European exchange came from the destruction of a potent greenhouse gas, HFC-23, at refrigerant plants in India and China. Destroying this gas became such a lucrative market that more refrigerant plants opened to get in on the action. The refrigerants were just an afterthought and were dumped on the market, making air-conditioning cheaper (which wasn’t good for global warming in its own right). When European regulators realized the scope of the mess they had caused, they banned the sale of HFC-23 carbon credits. Now former producers are threatening to release their stockpiles of HFC-23 (equivalent to two billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, 2.7 times the yearly CO2 emissions of all of Canada) unless Europe pays them off. [EDIT: An earlier version of this post said “27 times” instead of 2.7 times. I messed up the math.]

There are other reasons for my rejection of the European model of government meddling. European safety regulations do make it genuinely harder to bring new products to market in Europe (compared to the US and Canada). Here I’m happy to make a trade off that favours more innovation. Europe generously subsidizes post-secondary education. I’d prefer if we instead made post-secondary education much less mandatory.

I care about dynamism, not out of a belief in trickle-down economics, but because I’ve become (almost against my will) something of a techno-utopian. While I don’t want to diminish the role that social change plays in building a more ethical society (for example, there seems to be no technological solution to racism), I’m increasingly convinced that we won’t be able to solve poverty and disease except with radically improved technology. It’s uncontroversial to claim better technology is necessary to eradicate disease, but I think it is a bit more of an ask to get people to believe that technology offers a solution to poverty, so let me explain.

Capitalism offers an excellent solution to the problem of resource distribution: give more to people who create value for others, encouraging positive-sum interactions. But the moral case for capitalism breaks down in the presence of wealth. When people can hoard vast amounts of value or pass it on to their children (regardless of what value those children create for anyone), the argument that this method of resource allocation is ethical falls apart.

I don’t know if we can convince many people to make do with less. I know that revolutions almost always seem to go poorly and that socialism has an atrocious record of allocating even the simplest resources to people who need them – for all that there are ways global capitalism fails developing countries, global communism seemed to do no better. Given a choice between socialism and capitalism, I’ll take capitalism. It at least has the good graces to only lead to famines when they’re caused by external conditions, rather than as a matter of course [pdf link].

Given my skepticism about radical redistribution, I’ve become convinced that the only way to eradicate poverty is to create such a plenty that everyone can be guaranteed a decent living. This is why I worry about the slow and steady European approach to growth. Extreme poverty is the greatest stain on our collective morality I can see, an unconscionable and despicable ender of lives. We can’t afford to wait a single extra day to destroy it.

(In the absence of the eschaton, there is a community of people dedicated to doing what they can to reduce the impact of poverty. I encourage everyone to check out the moral case for Giving What We Can, an initiative that encourages those who can afford it to donate 10% of their income to the charities that are able to use that money to most effectively save lives).

Authority

I view the government as having little business legislating morality. I’m happy to accept economic legislation. I’m happy for the government to make activities associated with poor outcomes (e.g. alcohol consumption) more expensive via taxes. I’m even happy to pay taxes, both of the regular and “vice” varieties. I accept that taxes are a coercive use of government violence and I don’t care. I’m not a deontologist. I view violence as likely to be wrong, but I’m actually fine with the threat of violence being used to force society wide cooperation on the sorts of things that we’d mostly agree to from behind a Rawlsian veil of ignorance.

On the other hand, when we’re dealing with private, consensual behaviour (between people able to meaningfully consent), I can’t see any good that can come out of enforcing particular people’s versions of morality. I oppose most all blanket restrictions on the right of people to choose what to do with their bodies and oppose most especially restrictions on the ability of women to control their fertility. I oppose tighter restrictions on euthanasia. I oppose prohibitory drug laws (both out of a philosophical belief that people should be free to make their own decisions about their health, even bad ones, and out of a belief that prohibition increases crime and decreases access to treatment).

I even break with many other skeptics with my opposition to banning homeopathy or other widely accepted but empirically useless forms of placebo treatment. A friend has convinced me we’d likely see worse outcomes if we forced alternative medicines and their practitioners underground.

I think Canada’s free speech protections are inadequate and that we’re at risk of becoming a forum for libel shopping. I’ve become increasingly convinced that the only proper response to most speech is more speech, not violence (even state sanctioned violence, like arrest and imprisonment). I make an exception here only for credible threats (in the context of internet discussion, a credible threat is something like: “I will be waiting at ______, the place you work tomorrow and I’ll have a bullet with your name on it”, not “fuck you, I’m going to kill you”).

I think violent or hateful speech clearly marks someone as an unpleasant person to be around. Freedom of speech is inextricably tied to freedom of association; free speech rights can’t protect you from the social or reputational consequences of your speech. If you stop being invited to anything because of odious things you’ve said, you deserve it. No one has to offer you a platform for your speech. I see no responsibility to invite controversial speakers to events; doing so doesn’t “stand up for free speech”. Standing up for free speech merely requires we oppose violent responses to speech (including credible threats in response to speech) made by any actors, even the state.

Free speech is just one example of a right that is constantly under threat. Fair trials, access to housing without discrimination, and equal treatment under the law are arguably more important. I do support a central government enshrining rights and protecting people’s ability to enjoy these rights. The best quick heuristic I have for telling the difference between rights and legislated morality is that rights enumerate activities you should always be allowed to do, while legislated morality enumerates activities you will never be allowed to do.

I wish it was easier to tell when one person’s right becomes another person’s restriction. For me this feels intuitively simple, but maddeningly difficult to systematize. If you have a system, please share it with me. It will probably end up in my post next year.

My social libertarian streak comes from my belief in precedent utilitarianism. Precedent utilitarianism is basically a hybrid of rule and act utilitarianism. It acknowledges that many actions, especially those by taken by our government and leaders, set precedents that other people follow. Precedents you set are always transformed to the axioms of the people who witness them being set. If Prime Minister Trudeau were to remove a Supreme Court justice for being too conservative, the precedent he would be setting for future for conservative prime ministers wouldn’t be “it is okay to remove judges that are dangerously behind the times” (even if that was Trudeau’s explicit intention), it would be “it is okay to remove judges I disagree with”. I feel like the only way to avoid a horrible yo-yo of morality laws is to leave private morality as a private matter and respect that people have a variety of different beliefs and values.

I think that precedent utilitarianism looks favourable on human rights laws and I think Canada has an unusually good set of protected characteristics. I disagree with libertarians who find the human rights codes an unacceptable check on freedoms. I’m glad we have a set of protected characteristics that both protect vulnerable people from direct harm and protect society from tit-for-tat retaliation as various in-groups are threatened.

I do sometimes find my support for protected characteristics hard to square with my firm belief that the government shouldn’t enforce morality. I think that the precedent utilitarian argument for a government that doesn’t legislate morality but does vigourously enforce rights, including protection from discrimination, is probably best summed up by Scott Alexander in the essay In Favour of Niceness, Community, and Civilization. When the government stands up for rights, it is reminding people that they will be much better off if they avoid negative sum exchanges (like reciprocal discrimination) and instead focus on positive sum exchanges.

Delta

The change since I last took this test (2-3 years ago) is about +4 on the economic axis and +0.5 on the libertarian axis.

I think the change on the authoritarian/libertarian axis is driven by my increasing patriotism. All government is composed of trade-offs. I am such a product of the Canadian trade-offs that I could not countenance living long term (or raising children) in a country other than Canada.

Changes on the economic axis were driven by my changing opinions about socialism. A few years ago my thoughts were: “maybe this could work”. My current thoughts are more: “socialism: the correct answer for the post-scarcity future, where its propensity for famines will no longer be a problem”. A combination of In Due Course and Slate Star Codex convinced me that capitalism is our best bet for getting to that post-scarcity future.

Predictions

Looking directly at my current positions themselves, I don’t expect them to change much over the next year. Given that I recall feeling that way last time I took this test, I’m inherently skeptical of that intuition.

Taking just the past into account, I should expect my positions to change regardless of how I feel about them. Taking everything into account, here’s where I think I will be at the end of May 2018:

  1. I will have an economic score > -2.25: 50%
  2. I will have an economic score > -4.25: 80%
  3. My top level economic identity will still be “capitalist”: 80%
  4. I will have an authority score > -7.56: 70%
  5. I will have an authority score < -5.56: 90%
  6. My top level social identity will still be “libertarian”: 90%

Footnotes:

[1] Bank runs used to be a fact of life. Whenever anyone got hint of any trouble at a bank, they’d rush to it and pull all of their money out, to protect against losing it in the event the bank failed. Unfortunately, this often caused banks to fail, because everyone had an incentive to try and pull all their money out at the slightest hint of insecurity. If they didn’t, they’d risk losing it when other people ran to the bank to do the same. Old banks are imposing to give people a sense that their money is safe there. Ever wondered why bank runs just stopped happening in developed countries? Turns out it’s because the government started to insure deposits. Once you know that your money will be safe no matter what, you no longer have any incentive to withdraw it at the first sign of trouble. ^

Falsifiable, Politics, Quick Fix

May CPC Leadership Race Update

A friend asked me what I thought about the candidates in the leadership race for the Conservative Party of Canada. I found I had more to say than was strictly reasonable to post in a Facebook comment. I posted it anyway – because I’m sometimes unreasonable – but I found I also wanted to record my thoughts in a more organized manner that’s easier to link to.

Right now, I think there are a few meaningful ways to split up the candidates. You can split them up based on what block of the party they represent.

The way I see it, you have:

  • Michael Chong representing the wonkish Progressive Conservatives
  • Maxine Bernier and Rick Peterson representing the wonkish libertarians
  • Steven Blaney and Dr. Kellie Leitch with a more nativist message
  • Lisa Raitt, Andrew Scheer, and Erin O’Toole running as unobjectionable compromise candidates
  • Andrew Saxton and Chris Alexander running as clones of Steven Harper
  • Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost running as social conservatives
  • Deepak Obhrai running against xenophobia

It might be possible to collapse these categories a bit; unobjectionable compromise candidates and Harper clones don’t have that much difference between them, for example. But I think I’m clustering based on salient differences in what the candidates are choosing to highlight, even when their policy positions or voting records are very similar.

I’ve also been clustering based on ability to win the thing. Here I think there are two clear groups: the haves, and the have-nots. In no particular order, the haves are: Chong, Bernier, Leitch, Raitt, Scheer, and O’Toole. The have-nots are everyone else. I’d give 20:1 odds against any of the have-nots winning.

There are a few things I can infer about the haves based on all the emails I’ve been getting from them.

Chong (polling at 4% in the first round) is hoping that he signed up enough people and is enough people’s second/third/nth choice to win. That currently feels pretty unlikely, but we’ll see. I’d bet on Chong at 12:1 odds.

Raitt (5%), O’Toole (11%), and Scheer (22%) are fighting viciously for the post of compromise candidate, with varying degrees of poll and debate success (Raitt has done much better in debates than her polling suggests). Given the bitter divisions in the party, I personally think the race will go to one of these three on the third or fourth ballot, but I’m low confidence here. More emails in the past few days have attacked Scheer, so between that and his poll numbers, he’s the one I think most likely to win. I’d bet on Scheer at 3:1 odds, O’Toole at 10:1 odds, and Raitt at 12:1 odds.

Bernier (31%) is the current front runner, but I personally expect him to have a lot of trouble picking up subsequent round votes, even with O’Leary’s endorsement. I really wish there was more polling of second and third round intentions in this thing. Without those data, I’m going to put Bernier as second most likely to win, with betting odds of 4:1. I would very quickly change my tune if I saw any evidence he had strong support in the latter rounds.

Leitch (8%) has her own very dedicated cadre of um, “very patriotic” (read: virulently xenophobic) supporters. She also has a lot of people who hate her. Is that >50% of the party? I’m not sure. From her last email (where she urged everyone to consider at least ranking her), I think her internal polling is showing that it isn’t. Reading between the lines, I think her campaign thinks she won’t pick up many 2nd or 3rd votes but that she might have staying power into the late rounds. It seems like her strategy is to win on the 7th, 8th, 9th, or even 10th ballot after everyone else is exhausted. For this reason, I’d recommend she be left entirely off the ballots of anyone who joined the party to pick good candidates. I’d even at this point recommend leaving Bernier on the ballot as a last-ditch Leitch stopper. I do think Leitch is suffering from losing all that free air time to O’Leary and from the loss of her campaign manager a few months ago. He seemed to be able to reliably get her in the news in a way that her new campaign manager has been unable to replicate. I’d take Leitch at 10:1 odds.

Given all this I’d order the candidates from most to least likely to win thusly: Scheer, Bernier, O’Toole, Leitch, Chong, Raitt.

I diverge slightly from the polls of first round intentions because:

  • I think Bernier lacks second and third round support in a serious way. I especially expect him to suffer in rural ridings, where I’m given to understand supply management is popular.
  • I have Raitt below Chong because I think she is the weakest member of her bloc. If someone else in her bloc isn’t winning, I think it would signal a serious weakness in the bloc itself, such that she shouldn’t be in a position to be beating anyone.

When it comes to my personal ballot, I plan to rank nine candidates in the following order: Chong, Raitt, O’Toole, Scheer, Obhrai, Bernier, Saxton, Alexander, Peterson. I’m ranking each candidate based on their respect for the environment, their votes on Bill C-279 (protecting gender identity) and the Woodworth Committee (redefining when life starts), any relevant experience they have in politics or adjacent fields, the tone they’ve struck, their overall level of wonkishness, how much policy information they have on their websites, and their level of bilingualism

I’ve sprinkled this post with betting odds. I’m willing to risk up to $100 on bets about have-not candidates winning and $100 on bets about the other candidates. The only requirements I have for betting are that you must have access to Interac or PayPal (for fund transfers) and you must be willing to post publicly that you’re betting with me (preferably including the odds you’d have put on the event we’re betting on). I’ll add details about any takers in the comments of this post.

Falsifiable, Politics

2017 Predictions

In the vein of Slate Star Codex, I’d like to publicly post my predictions for 2017. I’ve tried to tie these predictions to empirically verifiable outcomes as much as possible, so that there’s no room for interpretation or wiggling. I’ve also included my confidence in my predictions (all predictions are formulated so confidence is at least 50%) so that I can check my calibration as well as my accuracy. If you can think of a better formulation of any of these that maintains the meaning, please let me know before January 7th. I will not edit this post at all after then, even to correct typos.

Canada

  1. Trudeau ends the year with a lower approval rating than he started – 60%
  2. No bill introduced that changes the electoral system away from first past the post in 2019 – 50%
  3. No referendum scheduled on changing the electoral system away from first past the post before 2019 – 70%
  4. A bill legalizing marijuana is passed by the House of Commons – 90%
  5. The senate doesn’t block attempts to legalize marijuana – 80%
  6. At least one court finds the assisted dying bill isn’t in line with Carter v Canada – 60%
  7. Ontario Liberal Approval rating remains below 30% – 80%
  8. Patrick Brown “unsure” rating remains above 40% – 70%
  9. Kellie Leitch is not the next CPC leader – 80%
  10. Michael Chong is not the next CPC leader – 70%
  11. Maxine Bernier is not the next CPC leader – 90%
  12. No terrorist attack that kills >10 Canadians – 70%
  13. No terrorist attack that kills >100 Canadians – 90%
  14. At least one large technology company (valuation >$10 billion and >1,000 employees) will open a Waterloo office in 2017 – 80%

America

  1. Trump will veto at least 1 bill passed by the House and Senate – 70%
  2. Changes to NAFTA will not significantly affect Canada (e.g. introduce tariffs, eliminate visas, etc) – 80%
  3. Less than 100km of concrete wall on the border with Mexico will be constructed – 80%
  4. Unemployment rate changes by less than 0.5% in 2017 – 90%
  5. Bay Area housing prices increase in 2017 – 90%
  6. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 80%
  7. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 5 million people – 50%
  8. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw less than 10 million people – 70%
  9. Protests outside of America on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 60%
  10. Terrorist attack in America that kills at least 10 Americans – 70%
  11. No terrorist attack in America that kills at least 100 Americans – 70%
  12. No registry of Muslims created in America – 90%
  13. New Supreme Court Justice is named to the USSC – 90%
  14. No repeal of any of: the individual mandate, the prohibition on denying coverage for pre-existing conditions, children remaining on their parents insurance plans until they are 25 – 70%
  15. Heathcare.gov is taken offline or otherwise rendered inoperative by the new administration – 80%
  16. No Federal Department is eliminated – 80%

South America

  1. No setback to the FARC peace deal significant enough to cause >1000 rebels to rearm – 70%
  2. On the black market, the exchange rate for Venezuelan Bolivars to US Dollars remains above 3000 bolivars per dollar. (As measured by DolarToday) – 80%
  3. Inflation in Venezuela for 2017 is higher than 100% (As measured by DolarToday) – 90%
  4. United Socialist party retains control of the Venezuelan presidency – 70%
  5. No uprising in Venezuela leading to >1000 combined civilian and soldier deaths – 70%

Middle East

  1. The “Regulation” Bill, legalizing many illegal settlements, is passed in Israel – 60%
  2. No Israeli politician is indicted by the ICC over settlement activity in 2017 – 80%
  3. The US moves its embassy to Jerusalem – 50%
  4. OPEC agreement fails (as evidenced by Saudi Arabia increasing oil production to >10.058 million BPD) – 50%
  5. Iraq takes back Mosul – 90%
  6. Mosul Dam does not fail – 70%
  7. Fewer casualties in Syrian Civil War in 2017 than in 2016 – 60%
  8. No new international sanctions against Iran – 80%
  9. No new US sanctions against Iran – 50%
  10. No attack on the Iranian nuclear program by Israel – 80%
  11. Iran does not withdraw from the deal limiting its nuclear program – 80%
  12. Conditional on Iran remaining in the nuclear deal, inspectors find no evidence of violations after the deal began – 90%
  13. Yemen Civil War continues – 60%

Africa

  1. Power transition in The Gambia requires ECOWAS troops – 50%
  2. Power transition occurs in The Gambia – 70%
  3. No peace deal ends South Sudan fighting – 50%
  4. IS or affiliated groups do not hold more territory in Africa at the end of 2017 than at the beginning – 90%
  5. Libya has a single government by the end of 2017 – 50%
  6. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Egypt that kills >100 people in a one week period – 80%
  7. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Tunisian kills >50 people in a one week period – 90%
  8. At least one terrorist attack kills >50 people in Tunisian – 50%

Asia

  1. Inflation rate in Japan remains below 1% in 2017 – 70%
  2. No Japanese snap election in 2017 – 90%
  3. Scandal involving Thailand’s new king makes its way to a major Western Newspaper – 50%
  4. Saenuri Party loses in the 2017 South Korean election – 80%
  5. China will send at least one diplomatic “insult” to the US (e.g. expelling an ambassador or consul or closing on of its embassies or consulates) – 60%
  6. By the end of 2017, none of the young lawmakers associated with the Umbrella Revolution will be in the Hong Kong parliament – 60%
  7. The Hong Kong lawmakers who are appealing their ban from parliament will have their final appeals denied – 80%
  8. China will not deploy its military against either Hong Kong or Taiwan in 2017 – 90%
  9. North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon – 70%
  10. North Korea does not demonstrate a completed weapon system (e.g. miniaturized bomb and ICBM capable of threatening the continental United States) – 90%

Europe

  1. No resolution to the crisis in Ukraine – 70%
  2. Crimea remains part of Russia – 90%
  3. Russian GDP growth is less than 2% – 80%
  4. No gain of greater than 15% in the value of the ruble vs the dollar – 60%
  5. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor of Germany – 60%
  6. Marie Le Pen does not become President of France – 70%
  7. Geert Wilders does not become Prime Minister of the Netherlands – 70%
  8. UK invokes Article 50 – 60%
  9. Conditional on the UK invoking article 50, this occurs behind schedule – 70%
  10. Conditional on the UK leaving the EU, Scotland prepares for another referendum – 80%
  11. No snap election called in the UK – 80%
  12. No regional independence movement (e.g. Scotland, Catalan) achieves success in Europe in 2017 – 90%
  13. Sanctions against Russia are not significantly rolled back (e.g. sanctions remain in place against Rosneft, Novate, Gazprombank and Vnesheconombank by all members of the G7 remain in place at the end of 2017) – 60%

Personal

  1. I will not break up with anyone I am currently dating – 90%
  2. I will buy a car – 50%
  3. I will still be working at my current job at the end of 2017 – 80%
  4. I will not move to another city in 2017 – 90%
  5. Conditional on remaining in my current city, I will not move to a different apartment in 2017 – 80%
  6. I will read at least 40 books this year – 80%
  7. I will read at least 10 non-fiction books this year – 50%
  8. I will start reading (and read at least 50 pages) of at least 10 books people recommended to me this year – 60%
  9. I will write at least 200,000 words this year – 80%
  10. I will post at least 15 blog posts or short stories – 80%
  11. I will post at least 25 blog posts or short stories – 50%
  12. I will be >15% over or under-confident for at least 2 confidence levels in these predictions (before taking into account this prediction) – 80%