Falsifiable, Politics

2017 Predictions

In the vein of Slate Star Codex, I’d like to publicly post my predictions for 2017. I’ve tried to tie these predictions to empirically verifiable outcomes as much as possible, so that there’s no room for interpretation or wiggling. I’ve also included my confidence in my predictions (all predictions are formulated so confidence is at least 50%) so that I can check my calibration as well as my accuracy. If you can think of a better formulation of any of these that maintains the meaning, please let me know before January 7th. I will not edit this post at all after then, even to correct typos.

Canada

  1. Trudeau ends the year with a lower approval rating than he started – 60%
  2. No bill introduced that changes the electoral system away from first past the post in 2019 – 50%
  3. No referendum scheduled on changing the electoral system away from first past the post before 2019 – 70%
  4. A bill legalizing marijuana is passed by the House of Commons – 90%
  5. The senate doesn’t block attempts to legalize marijuana – 80%
  6. At least one court finds the assisted dying bill isn’t in line with Carter v Canada – 60%
  7. Ontario Liberal Approval rating remains below 30% – 80%
  8. Patrick Brown “unsure” rating remains above 40% – 70%
  9. Kellie Leitch is not the next CPC leader – 80%
  10. Michael Chong is not the next CPC leader – 70%
  11. Maxine Bernier is not the next CPC leader – 90%
  12. No terrorist attack that kills >10 Canadians – 70%
  13. No terrorist attack that kills >100 Canadians – 90%
  14. At least one large technology company (valuation >$10 billion and >1,000 employees) will open a Waterloo office in 2017 – 80%

America

  1. Trump will veto at least 1 bill passed by the House and Senate – 70%
  2. Changes to NAFTA will not significantly affect Canada (e.g. introduce tariffs, eliminate visas, etc) – 80%
  3. Less than 100km of concrete wall on the border with Mexico will be constructed – 80%
  4. Unemployment rate changes by less than 0.5% in 2017 – 90%
  5. Bay Area housing prices increase in 2017 – 90%
  6. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 80%
  7. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 5 million people – 50%
  8. Protests (in America) on Trump’s inauguration day draw less than 10 million people – 70%
  9. Protests outside of America on Trump’s inauguration day draw at least 1 million people – 60%
  10. Terrorist attack in America that kills at least 10 Americans – 70%
  11. No terrorist attack in America that kills at least 100 Americans – 70%
  12. No registry of Muslims created in America – 90%
  13. New Supreme Court Justice is named to the USSC – 90%
  14. No repeal of any of: the individual mandate, the prohibition on denying coverage for pre-existing conditions, children remaining on their parents insurance plans until they are 25 – 70%
  15. Heathcare.gov is taken offline or otherwise rendered inoperative by the new administration – 80%
  16. No Federal Department is eliminated – 80%

South America

  1. No setback to the FARC peace deal significant enough to cause >1000 rebels to rearm – 70%
  2. On the black market, the exchange rate for Venezuelan Bolivars to US Dollars remains above 3000 bolivars per dollar. (As measured by DolarToday) – 80%
  3. Inflation in Venezuela for 2017 is higher than 100% (As measured by DolarToday) – 90%
  4. United Socialist party retains control of the Venezuelan presidency – 70%
  5. No uprising in Venezuela leading to >1000 combined civilian and soldier deaths – 70%

Middle East

  1. The “Regulation” Bill, legalizing many illegal settlements, is passed in Israel – 60%
  2. No Israeli politician is indicted by the ICC over settlement activity in 2017 – 80%
  3. The US moves its embassy to Jerusalem – 50%
  4. OPEC agreement fails (as evidenced by Saudi Arabia increasing oil production to >10.058 million BPD) – 50%
  5. Iraq takes back Mosul – 90%
  6. Mosul Dam does not fail – 70%
  7. Fewer casualties in Syrian Civil War in 2017 than in 2016 – 60%
  8. No new international sanctions against Iran – 80%
  9. No new US sanctions against Iran – 50%
  10. No attack on the Iranian nuclear program by Israel – 80%
  11. Iran does not withdraw from the deal limiting its nuclear program – 80%
  12. Conditional on Iran remaining in the nuclear deal, inspectors find no evidence of violations after the deal began – 90%
  13. Yemen Civil War continues – 60%

Africa

  1. Power transition in The Gambia requires ECOWAS troops – 50%
  2. Power transition occurs in The Gambia – 70%
  3. No peace deal ends South Sudan fighting – 50%
  4. IS or affiliated groups do not hold more territory in Africa at the end of 2017 than at the beginning – 90%
  5. Libya has a single government by the end of 2017 – 50%
  6. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Egypt that kills >100 people in a one week period – 80%
  7. No protests, riots, or rebellion in Tunisian kills >50 people in a one week period – 90%
  8. At least one terrorist attack kills >50 people in Tunisian – 50%

Asia

  1. Inflation rate in Japan remains below 1% in 2017 – 70%
  2. No Japanese snap election in 2017 – 90%
  3. Scandal involving Thailand’s new king makes its way to a major Western Newspaper – 50%
  4. Saenuri Party loses in the 2017 South Korean election – 80%
  5. China will send at least one diplomatic “insult” to the US (e.g. expelling an ambassador or consul or closing on of its embassies or consulates) – 60%
  6. By the end of 2017, none of the young lawmakers associated with the Umbrella Revolution will be in the Hong Kong parliament – 60%
  7. The Hong Kong lawmakers who are appealing their ban from parliament will have their final appeals denied – 80%
  8. China will not deploy its military against either Hong Kong or Taiwan in 2017 – 90%
  9. North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon – 70%
  10. North Korea does not demonstrate a completed weapon system (e.g. miniaturized bomb and ICBM capable of threatening the continental United States) – 90%

Europe

  1. No resolution to the crisis in Ukraine – 70%
  2. Crimea remains part of Russia – 90%
  3. Russian GDP growth is less than 2% – 80%
  4. No gain of greater than 15% in the value of the ruble vs the dollar – 60%
  5. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor of Germany – 60%
  6. Marie Le Pen does not become President of France – 70%
  7. Geert Wilders does not become Prime Minister of the Netherlands – 70%
  8. UK invokes Article 50 – 60%
  9. Conditional on the UK invoking article 50, this occurs behind schedule – 70%
  10. Conditional on the UK leaving the EU, Scotland prepares for another referendum – 80%
  11. No snap election called in the UK – 80%
  12. No regional independence movement (e.g. Scotland, Catalan) achieves success in Europe in 2017 – 90%
  13. Sanctions against Russia are not significantly rolled back (e.g. sanctions remain in place against Rosneft, Novate, Gazprombank and Vnesheconombank by all members of the G7 remain in place at the end of 2017) – 60%

Personal

  1. I will not break up with anyone I am currently dating – 90%
  2. I will buy a car – 50%
  3. I will still be working at my current job at the end of 2017 – 80%
  4. I will not move to another city in 2017 – 90%
  5. Conditional on remaining in my current city, I will not move to a different apartment in 2017 – 80%
  6. I will read at least 40 books this year – 80%
  7. I will read at least 10 non-fiction books this year – 50%
  8. I will start reading (and read at least 50 pages) of at least 10 books people recommended to me this year – 60%
  9. I will write at least 200,000 words this year – 80%
  10. I will post at least 15 blog posts or short stories – 80%
  11. I will post at least 25 blog posts or short stories – 50%
  12. I will be >15% over or under-confident for at least 2 confidence levels in these predictions (before taking into account this prediction) – 80%

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